We have had scattered thunderstorms on multiple days this week due to the warm air and moisture in place…a summer time pattern has established itself and if nothing else the wet weather is expected to increase in scope as we go into next week.
Deep tropical moisture is currently building up in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and is impacting the state of Florida this weekend, this is the result of an upper low and weak surface low that is working in tandem. This low pressure is not tropical in nature but it has a tropical airmass to work with allowing numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop daily near and east of the low track.
This tropical moisture will eventually start to advect northward and affect the Southeast US going into next week. Also with high pressure located off the East Coast of the US, the two are assisting each other to provide a stout fetch from the south and southeast. An upper low will drift to up along the Gulf Coast by Tuesday and only very slowly weaken and lift into the Interior Southeast US by the end of next week.
The end result for our weather pattern in the Western Carolinas will be more clouds and good chances of showers and thunderstorms, not only during peak heating but also with potential nocturnal activity. High precipitable water values will enter the region and there could also be an upslope component at times focusing moisture in certain parts of the coverage area.
Rainfall amounts by next weekend look to be pretty sufficient region-wide. Some locations over a multi-day period could see 3 or more inches of rain by next weekend.
This weather pattern may try to lock itself in, even past the current 7-day forecast period as computer model ensembles continue to show a weak trough along the Gulf and Southeast US with continued Bermuda Ridging…