Good Wednesday Morning to everyone in the foothills of Western NC. Patchy fog out there again this morning but not as much as there was on Tuesday Morning. As of 4:30am the entire viewing area is free from any showers or thunderstorms. That won't last though.
Today a cold front, and I hesitate to call it a cold front because there isn't a huge change in airmass, will approach from the West. As of 4:30am it looks like two possible rounds of rain today. The first should develop on the mountains and Eastern Escarpment late this morning and then move South and East. There are already some showers moving into the mountains from the West. The second wave of showers and storms should develop during the early afternoon. That second round of thunderstorms could have a couple of strong storms with it. With a little bit of dry air moving in aloft today storms pose just a little higher chance to produce some straight line wind gusts over 60mph. Any damaging wind threat though will be isolated. Storms today will likely produce frequent lightning. Of course with the ground being so wet already there is the chance of some localized flash flooding, especially in our Western Foothills of Burke, Caldwell, McDowell, and Rutherford. By late this evening I think showers and storms will move East of our forecast area.
Thursday the best chance of showers and thunderstorms will finally move off to the south and East with the "cold front" mentioned above moving off the South and East. Thursday and Friday will feature our lowest precipitation chances of the week. While chances will not be zero they will only be 20 - 40%. Hopefully some of the areas will get this brief window of time to dry out just a little.
Lots of outdoor activities planned this weekend and the weather just doesn't want to cooperate. Saturday continues to look like the better of the three day weekend. Chances of rain do go back up on Saturday but only to around a 30% chance. Most of the day should be dry. Moisture really starts to return on Sunday as our area becomes influenced by a moisture latent flow off the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and storms erupt on Sunday Afternoon. This will be another scenario where moisture banks up against the Blue Ridge and anchors in place. Given that the flash flood threat goes up once again. Our Eastern counties of Alexander, Catawba, Lincoln, and Cleveland may hold the rain off until later in the afternoon when more robust lift moves in from the East. Nonetheless by sunset on Sunday most of the area could be seeing rain. We will narrow down that forecast as we get closer too. Those high end rain chances continue right through Tuesday. This is due to that tropical system in the Gulf moving North up the East Coast before moving inland into early next week. Winds will not be a huge concern but the torrential downpours could lead to flash flooding through at least Tuesday.
Foothills Weather Network