Good afternoon, Foothills Weather Nation!
While you won't necessarily be needing a boat, we will be moving into a wetter period this week as a standing trough that, although weakening, centers itself over Ohio meaning that North Carolina is directly in the path of the moisture and energy heavy jet stream. This trough will dwindle down to basically nothing come Thursday where we anticipate some sunnier skies for Thursday and Friday. This won't make promises of a drier weekend as our regional precipitable water never experiences a hiccup. Let's get into the details:
Short Term Forecast (Today-Tonight)
We are already seeing some evidence of storms picking up across the forecasting area as we start into our evening. Precipitation probabilities are currently around 60% and are expected to drop a little (40%) tonight with less lightning likely the further into the night. We peaked out or high today in the 85-86 degree range and are now on the graceful decline to our overnight low in the upper 60's.
Near Term Forecast (Monday-Thursday)
This part of the forecast is where the meat of our precipitation seems to take effect as we have a bounty of summery heat, plentiful moisture, and a continuous supply of energy granted by the standing trough.
Above is the GFS prediction of precipitation accumulation from 12z today on through 21z Thursday. This is a product that is still in development that therefore can't be taken 100% for it's values. What we mean is there might be more or less rain than what's estimated- especially locally depending on the storms. But what we can take from this image is the concentrations of where these totals take place. The Foothills resides right in one of North Carolina's "hot spots" so we know we are in for a respectable rain event this week. With the aforementioned bounty of heat, moisture, and energy it is fair to believe there is a solid possibility of thunderstorms every day this week, which matches the SPC's forecast for the entire East Coast.
Temperature profiles for the earlier part of the work week are on the milder side due to the anticipated rain and mostly cloudy conditions with diurnal highs in the low 80s, diurnal lows hovering just around 70 degrees. Come Thursday we will see less cloud coverage, lower precipitation probabilities (40%) and therefore a bump in temperature to the mid/upper 80's.
Long Term Forecast (Friday-Sunday)
Finally our standing trough will have dissipated by Friday and the sun will make an appearance! Unfortunately, we can still expect a (40%) chance of rain and thunderstorms for the afternoon on Friday, but it is still summertime in NC and can therefore be expected. Daily high for Friday flirts closely to the 90 degree mark, but this could be influenced by any precipitation we might see. Going into Saturday and Sunday we see less of an influence in energy from troughs or ridges as upper atmospheric flow will be much more zonal during this time, but convective opportunities will come back into play as we surge into a stronger flux of moisture. Currently we forecast a 50-60% chance for Saturday and Sunday, but there is room for change.
Thanks for reading!
Have a great week! Stay dry!