Heavy Rainfall Potential to Increase Next 48 Hours...

Forecaster:  Daniel Crawley (@SoApps1979)


Good Monday afternoon to everyone…we have been talking about the return of an active weather pattern in previous briefings that have been posted on the website. And it appears we can begin to narrow it down even more as the next 48+ hours looks to be the most active in the current forecast period.


First, by looking at the water vapor image, you can see moisture already beginning to stream northeast into the Western Carolinas, thanks in part to an upper trough/low developing and diving toward the Mississippi River along with the Western Atlantic Ridge that is holding firm just off the east coast. The flow around both features will deliver deep south and southwest flow through most of this week.






The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the Southeast US including the Western Carolinas under a slight risk for excessive rainfall for both Tuesday and Wednesday as the players synoptically will be in place.









The areas of highest risk also correlates to where some of the deepest moisture content will be on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Precipitable Water Values will be in the 1.7 – 2.0 inch range across the coverage area, which is very sufficient for heavy rainfall potential. With an upper low and backside ridging in place, we should have a mainly uncapped atmosphere. All we need is the slightest upper level help to serve as a trigger to fire the storms…












Again, we think the greatest rainfall potential will be on Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly lasting into Thursday before things calm down just a bit. Here is the latest WPC forecast rainfall through Friday morning, the potential for flash flooding will increase as we go through the weekend, please take all watches and warnings seriously when they are issued. Remain Weather Aware if heavy rainfall impacts your area…