Tuesday September 11, 2018 Morning 7:47am
Chief Meteorologist Christopher White
Good Morning. Here is high impact weather briefing number four. Florence continues to churn in the open Atlantic but forward speed did pick up overnight to the WNW at 13mph. That is in response to the Atlantic ridge of high pressure developing to the North and East of Florence, forcing him West. Overnight Florence gained a little latitude and now sits at 26.4 N and 64.1 W. A buoy 80 miles to the North of the eye of Florence is reporting continuous tropical storm force winds and 23 foot seas. This indicates that Florence’s windfield is starting to spread out.
Over the next two days Florence is going to be in optimal conditions from strengthening. The National Hurricane Center almost make this a category 5 storm by Wednesday Evening. High pressure will be moving South on Wednesday from the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. This will cause a major road block and in response Florence’s rate of speed will slow. Florence could also encounter some wind shear Wednesday Night and Thursday that should weaken it a little before it makes landfall overnight Thursday into Friday
Right now the best guidance we have looks like a land falling major hurricane between Wilmington and Morehead City early Friday Morning. This is subject to change and some ensemble models want to make a make Florence landfall in SC. It will just have to be watched and monitored. Overnight models did start to ease toward and agreement. It is pretty clear that Florence is going to stall along the coast. How long is the next question. Models agree a 24-36 hour stall before Florence comes West. This increases our risk of flash flooding, mud slides, landslides, and rock slides. Everything is slowed down now though due to the blocking and we may not see the rain and effects until Friday or Saturday.
I cannot stress to you how much we want you to prepare. Of course it isnt likely that everyone see flooding. It is likely that somewhere between NC, SC, and VA will experience extremely devastating flooding but where exactly is the key. The GFS finally agrees a run inland is plausible.
Next full update 9pm tonight.